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Predicting What Comes Next: Exploring Sequences and Progressions

Does the rule really fit?

1, 2, 4 — what comes next? There is more than one honest answer.

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The list so far: 1, 2, 4.
Step 1 of 4
  1. The list so far: 1, 2, 4.
  2. Double each time: the next term is 8.
  3. Add 1, then 2, then 3: the next term is 7.
  4. Both fit. The list cannot choose.

The rule

Two rules fit 1, 2, 4. So the next term can be 8 or 7.

Doubling fits 1, 2, 4. The next term is 8. Adding 1, then 2, then 3 fits too. The next term is 7. The two rules agree on three terms and differ at the fourth.

The same happens with 3, 5, 7. The rule "add 2" gives 9 next. A prime has exactly two factors: 1 and itself. The odd primes are the primes except 2: 3, 5, 7, 11. That rule gives 11 next.

Three terms that fit do not prove a rule.

So when a question gives you the rule, use that rule. Do not guess one from the first terms.

One list, two rules, two fourth terms
ListRule oneNextRule twoNext
1, 2, 4double each time8add 1, then 2, then 37
3, 5, 7add 2 each time9the odd primes11

Some lists have no simple add or multiply rule. The primes 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, … are such a list.

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This track

  1. 0 Start here
  2. 1 A rule, not a guess
  3. 2 A rule that looks back
  4. 3 A rule that jumps straight there
  5. 4 The same step every time
  6. 5 Adding the first n
  7. 6 Checkpoint: rules, jumps and the fold
  8. 7 The same multiplier every time
  9. 8 A shape that multiplies
  10. 9 A tower and a doubling
  11. 10 Does the rule really fit?
  12. 11 Checkpoint: multipliers, stages, towers and rivals
  13. 12 The big picture
  14. 13 Track quiz

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