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Lesson 0 of 11

4 min

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A coin spins before a cricket match. A ludo player waits for a six. A bag hides marbles of three colours. None of these can be called for sure. To call a result is to name it first. Yet each one can be measured.

A chance is a number from 0 to 1.

This is Chapter 7 of your textbook. It is called The Mathematics of Maybe.

  • Random — one result cannot be called. A long run of tosses can be described.
  • A scale from 0 to 1 — chances lie between impossible and certain.
  • Counting what happened — a chance from real trials.
  • More tries, steadier — the share steadies as the tries grow in number.
  • Counting what could happen — a chance from the set-up itself.
  • When the two disagree — real rolls against the worked-out chance.
  • Two things at once — a table of pairs.
  • A tree of results — the same pairs, stage by stage.

A quick catch-up

These earlier ideas help. Open any to refresh it first.

  • A fraction has a place on the number line.
  • Divide by the whole. Then a share is a percentage.
  • A ratio compares two amounts. The question decides which two.
  • A new reading changes a running average.
  • A claim can fit nine cases and fail the tenth.
  • One try can fool you. Many tries show more.